Real Madrid VS Athletic Club

The match is La Liga on May 24, 2026 at 3:00 a.m. (local time), Real Madrid sits at home at the Bernabeu Stadium to face Athletic Bilbao, with an over/under market of 3 goals, over and under odds of 0.76, and under ball odds of 0.99.

Real Madrid has averaged 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 league games, including 3 total goals ≥3 goals, 2.2 goals per game on the offensive end but 1.2 goals per game on the defensive end; Bilbao has averaged 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 games, with only 3 goals ≥ total goals in 1 game, and all of the last 3 away games have played small goals, with solid defense but low offensive efficiency, and the most recent 0-0 draw away.

10 La Liga meetings in history, Real Madrid has an absolute advantage of 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at home, but only 3 (30%) have scored 3 goals ≥ total goals, and the last 2 meetings at the Bernabeu are 1-0 and 2-1 respectively, neither of which has exceeded 3 goals, and the two sides tend to play defensively.

The odds of 0.76 are significantly lower than the 0.99 of the underball, and the institution is inclined to the big ball but the payout risk is higher, and the market has risen from 2.75 goals in the initial set to 3 goals, which is suspected of inducing the heat of the big ball; The odds difference between the over/under ball is 0.23, combined with the recent small ball tendency of the two sides, the probability of the actual big ball playing may be overestimated.

terms of prediction, although Real Madrid has a strong home attack, Bilbao's away defense is tenacious, and the historical confrontation is frequent, and the recent trend of the two sides is differentiated and the away team's small ball tendency is obvious, and the market is deep to 3 goals with resistance, and the total number of goals in this game is predicted to be less than 3 goals, and it is recommended to score small goals.

In view of the divergence between the market adjustment and the fundamentals, the threshold of 3 goals in the over/under ball is at a critical point, if the water level of the over-the-spot ball continues to fall, it may form a lure market, and Real Madrid's Champions League consumption affects physical fitness in the middle of the week, it is recommended not to blindly bet on the big ball, wait and see.