Premier League Predictions: Man City vs Liverpool, Spurs v Man United, and the rest of Matchday 11 - The Athletic

The Athletic's Premier League predictions challenge for week 11 anticipates a low-scoring weekend in the Premier League, with the author expecting minimal goals based on current trends. This season is projected to be the lowest-scoring since 2017-18, with average goals per game declining from 3.28 in 2023-24 to 2.93 last season and further dropping to 2.68 after 100 matches this term. Although scoring rates have slightly improved recently, seven teams, including Aston Villa and Newcastle United, are averaging one goal or fewer per game, with Sunderland ranking fourth despite scoring only 1.2 goals per game.

Predictions for the upcoming weekend suggest a repeat of the low-scoring pattern seen in week four, where only 19 goals were scored across 10 games. The author forecasts tight matches, including three 1-0 wins, three 1-1 draws, and three 2-0 victories, before highlighting the Manchester City vs. Liverpool match as a potential source of more attacking quality. Historically, the lowest-scoring gameweek in the Premier League era occurred in November 2001, with just 14 goals from 10 games, while the highest was in the 1992-93 season finale, featuring 53 goals across 11 matches, with other high-scoring weeks concentrated in earlier decades.

On a positive note, the decline in goals could make scorelines easier to predict. The prediction challenge involves four participants: a guest subscriber, a six-year-old named Wilfred, an algorithm, and the author, using a scoring system that awards three points for a correct scoreline, one point for a correct result, and a bonus point for unique correct predictions. Recently, the author scored 13 points from two correct scorelines and five correct results, plus a belated bonus point, closing the gap to within one point of the algorithm at the top of the standings.